NBA Finals/NBA Draft Captain’s Corner

After the Miami Heat took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals last night, the excitement level bubbling inside of me was at previously unknown heights. Knowing that I am now just one game away from shouting the words “LeBron James, NBA Champion” is foreign territory for me. It’s exciting, yet I’m absolutely terrified. I’m still not counting Oklahoma City. I have the tendency to be way too cautious, plus it would be unrealistic to do so. This is the same Oklahoma City team that came back from down 2-0 against a team that had won 20 straight games. My stomach already hurts for Thursday night. Somehow, I managed to pull myself together, put on my game face, and knock out an hour-long podcast with Paul Clark talking about the best NBA Finals in over a decade, and the upcoming 2012 NBA Draft. Check out this edition of The Captain’s Corner.

2012 NBA Finals Preview Captain’s Corner

Late Sunday night trust podcast companion Paul Clark joined me to discuss the NBA Finals in the Captain’s Corner. Specifically, we talked about Dwyane Wade’s mediocre play this postseason, the potential future of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the psyche of LeBron James, and what my psyche will be if the Heat cannot win the NBA Championship.

NBA Playoffs 10 Questions- Quality over Quantity!

Last year I had a post with this 20 Questions gimmick that I ran before the NBA playoffs started. Not to sound braggadocios, but I felt that it was a really solid piece of writing. There is nothing more satisfying and interesting than asking questions, and then going ahead and answering them yourself. Even though I love the idea, I made two changes to the format this year. First, I trimmed the fat and removed ten questions. As the title states, I felt quality was more important that quantity, and it turns out, I have just as much information in this year’s edition as I did last years. Second, I made the executive decision to wait until the end of the 2nd round to post this. I felt like I would be able to put out an overall better product if I tackled less questions, included the early rounds, and also looked into my magic 8-ball and made some predictions for the next few weeks.

1: What was the most interesting series so far?
In the first round, the Los Angeles/Memphis series was legitimately intriguing from a stylistic standpoint, and the games didn’t fail to deliver. Four games were decided by 4 points or less, and there were three legitimately memorable games in the series. Obviously, the 27 point comeback in game seven qualifies as one of the three. Watching it live, it was one of the most incredible things I’ve ever seen in an NBA game, and a testament to the statement that no lead is safe in the NBA. Here is how quickly Los Angeles came back in that game: My dad has a tendency to fall asleep towards the tail end of sporting events. He does the classic head bob and acts like he isn’t falling asleep; rather he’s just resting his eyes for a minute. Eventually, you start to hear the snoring and that’s all she wrote for him. Well, Los Angeles came back so quickly in that game my Dad didn’t even get to the latter stages of dozing off. Memphis handled that for him. By the end of the game he was actually wide awake, and neither of us could believe that Memphis blew the game. And I was in shock he stayed awake to see it all.

The Clippers celebrate after one of the greatest comebacks in NBA history

The series was decided in a tough and ugly game seven which I chronicled in a Running Diary Recap. It was far from pretty, but as I tweeted during the game, it was the most compelling game of the playoffs at that point. I think sometimes ugly, low scoring, poor shooting games get unfairly judged as boring games. Game seven was a war that was closer than the final score indicated. It probably would’ve put my Dad to sleep though.The only other series that has matched what Los Angeles/Memphis brought to the table has been Indiana/Miami. Aside from the fact there were 3 games that stand out because of the final score and an all-time great performance from LeBron (we’ll get there), there was legitimate bad blood between the two teams that is so rare to see in today’s AAU/everyone loves everybody NBA lifestyle. It was actually refreshing to see flagrant fouls (which shouldn’t have really been called flagrants), technical fouls (which really shouldn’t have been called technicals) and even a little blood shed (which was actually blood).

2: What’s the forecast look like next year for the teams already eliminated from the playoffs?
Chicago Bulls- Well, Derrick Rose will be out a while, so I really doubt the Bulls will again have the best record in the East. They were successful without Rose this past year during the regular season, but it’s entirely different knowing that Rose won’t be there for a while. Chicago will still be competitive. The Bulls are a well-coached, gritty, great defensive team… even without Rose.

Indiana Pacers- It was no fluke Indiana had a 2-1 lead against Miami in the 2^nd round. We were getting a look at the new top dog in the Central Division. The Pacers will likely be able to re-sign Roy Hibbert, and with Derrick Rose out for a portion of the year for Chicago, the Pacers should take a step forward in the Eastern Conference.

Atlanta Hawks- Just like every other year, the Hawks will finish in between 3^rd and 6^th in the Eastern Conference and remain totally irrelevant in the big picture of the league.

Philadelphia 76ers- Philadelphia is tricky to predict because it’s not a certainty that Andre Iguodala will be there next year. Look, I like Iguodala, but not as a team’s best player. If Iguodala is the 3^rd best player in your team, you are in good shape. But you don’t win a championship when your best guy shoots 38%, and averages 13 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists like Iguodala did this post season. Let’s see if Philadelphia moves Iguodala, and if so, for whom.

Orlando Magic- Let’s forget about Orlando until Dwight Howard is gone. And well we’re at it; I’ll go ahead and forget that Dwight is a total dick too. Everyone else seems to have forgotten this, so I might as well jump on board too.

New York Knicks- The question still remains: Can Carmelo Anthony be the best player on a NBA Championship contender? I thought after Mike D’Antoni was fired and the Knicks took off before the playoffs started, that the anti-Carmelo argument was dead. But man, he didn’t show me too much promise against Miami. Yeah, 28 points and 8 rebounds per game looks good, but 42% shooting doesn’t. As talented of a scorer as he is, he needs a lot of shots to get those points, and he doesn’t make a single teammate any better. The Knicks have plenty of intriguing pieces; Carmelo, reigning Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler, Jeremy Lin, JR Smith and his quick trigger, and Amare Stoudemire with his fire extinguisher. It still remains to be seen if all of those pieces can be put together and used effectively.

Los Angeles Lakers- As much as I’d love to speculate about the Lakers, it’s hard to guess where they will be because we have no idea who’ll be on the roster. Is Pau going to still be there? What about Bynum? Will they find a way to trade for Dwight Howard? Could Deron Williams end up in Los Angeles? Will Metta World Peace change his name back to Ron Artest to eliminate the incredible awkwardness of calling him World Peace? This team is a giant question mark. Plus, maybe the biggest question is how much does Kobe Bryant have left in the tank? During the postseason he looked like he was still capable of carrying the scoring burden for the Lakers, but is that necessarily what is best for the Lakers? I don’t think Kobe shooting 30 times a game is a recipe for a title, at least not this stage in his career. The best move in my eyes: Flip Pau for Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola, and try to sign an off the bench scorer during free agency. Lowry, Kobe, World Peace, Scola, Bynum and more bench help doesn’t sound too bad.

Los Angeles Clippers- Year one of Lob City can only be seen as a success. There was talk of the Clippers making a finals appearance, but the expectations were set way too high from the start. If the Lakers make the right moves they’ll probably remain at the top of the Pacific Division. But giving Paul an offseason to learn his teammate’s tendencies and another year of polishing for Blake will definitely result in an improved Clippers team.

Memphis Grizzlies- Memphis should be able to sustain success for a while. They weren’t totally healthy either of the last two seasons, yet still managed to upset 1 seed San Antonio last year, and grab a 4 seed this year. I think Memphis remains a contender in the West next year, again hovering around in the top 5 of the standings.

Denver Nuggets/Utah Jazz- These two teams won’t make the playoffs next year. Count on Golden State and Houston taking those two spots. That’s my first major prediction for the 2012-13 season.

Dallas Mavericks- Considering Dallas eliminated any chance at a title defense this year by letting go of Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, and DeShawn Stevenson, I’d expect them to make some big moves in the offseason (Example: Sign Deron Williams) and try to get a little younger before Dirk is no longer relevant. If Dallas, well, when Dallas signs Deron Williams, they suddenly become very a very interesting contender in the Western Conference.

3: What have been the best non NBA Playoffs aspects of the last month?
Three things come to mind. First, on April 29^th the WWE Extreme Rules pay-per-view was about as good of a show as you could realistically ask for. It was going to be a tough task to follow up WrestleMania 28 (check out LaterNamed on June 1^st to see my firsthand recap of the show), and Extreme Rules somehow managed to successfully do so. The Daniel Bryan/Sheamus 2 out of 3 Falls Match was an exciting contest, and it gave the two a chance to showcase their skills since their match at WrestleMania lasted only 18 seconds. The Chris Jericho/CM Punk Chicago Street Fight was far different than their technical wrestling clinic at WrestleMania, but just as entertaining. And the John Cena/Brock Lesnar Extreme Rules Match was a throwback to the style of match that wrestling fans were familiar with ten years ago, even though it played out like a real fight. Every time I think the WWE is going to fail to deliver, I’m hit with a pay-per-view like Extreme Rule and then I remember why I still love the WWE.

Secondly, we have a Triple Crown threat for the first time since Big Brown won the first two legs in 2008. Even though I’m not much of a horse racing guy, I can always get into a chance at history being made. That’s why I always watch the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, and in the off chance there is Triple Crown potential, the Belmont Stakes becomes Super Bowl level exciting… well for like two minutes. This year, I’ll Have Another and jockey Mario Gutierrez have a chance at making history, and a chance at providing me with a previously unknown level of excitement.

And speaking of previously unknown levels of excitement… how much do you love the Corona Light commercial with Stan!? Isn’t Stan the biggest winner of the playoffs so far? How can’t you love Stan? Can I book him for a party? If I’m going out and partying, I want Stan as my wingman. He is the epitome of awesome.

4: Which player has improved his free agent stock the most in the playoffs?
Not that it really matters since neither player would leave their current team, but Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan have been playing better than any of the other upcoming free agents this postseason. That’s a slap in the face to father time and to every young guy who is supposed to be outplaying these two vets. Kevin Garnett is showing flashes of being the Minnesota Timberwolves version of KG and Tim Duncan is playing like he’s capable of putting up the numbers he did when San Antonio was rattling off titles every other year. In Garnett’s case, this scares the hell out of me. As a Heat fan (excuse me, a LeBron James fan), this could pose as a major problem since the Heat front line is as thin as a starving Kenyan and Chris Bosh isn’t even in the picture. Even if Bosh was healthy, there is still the realistic fear that Garnett could go all Big Ticket on him and eviscerate Bosh and the rest of the lackluster Miami bigs. It’s not unthinkable. Garnett has averaged 19.5 points on 50% shooting, and 10.7 rebounds throughout the playoffs, and has had a double-double in 10 out of 14 playoff games.

Statistically, Duncan hasn’t been as spectacular as Garnett has, but I think it’s safe to say Duncan is a very vital piece of this San Antonio squad. I find it interesting that all we hear about San Antonio this year is Parker’s MVP caliber season, Ginobili coming off the bench doing Ginobili things, and an incredibly deep supporting cast. Tim Duncan is rarely mentioned, and that just doesn’t make sense to me. Just like he has for the majority of his career, Duncan has flown under the radar this year. No one has ever fully appreciated how great Duncan has been for 15 years, so why start now? In the hypothetical scenario that Duncan wasn’t 36 and didn’t have a connection with San Antonio, he’d get plenty of long looks as a free agent.

So ultimately, the biggest free agency winner is Roy Hibbert. By simply averaging a double-double (11.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3 blocks, 50% FG) this postseason, Hibbert will cash in during free agency; likely to the degree that Marc Gasol did this past December. The Grizzlies agreed to a contract extension with Gasol, who got paid nearly $13 million this year and will be getting 12.5% raises over the next three years. Since the center position is arguably the weakest in the league right now, I guess I can see paying a 7’2 center who has shown glimpses of improving $13 million a year. My only problem with this is that Hibbert, 7’2, couldn’t even manage 9 rebounds a game during the regular season. In the postseason he feasted on two teams playing without a legitimate big man. Hibbert was guarded by the likes of Ryan Anderson, Glen Davis, Joel Anthony, Ronny Turiaf and Udonis Haslem, so you have to wonder if the numbers are skewed a little in his favor. If I’m a GM and I’m thinking of signing him, I’m certainly hoping he can grab double digit rebounds, and not just against a bunch of power forwards. The fact of the matter is I would feel a hell of a lot more comfortable throwing $13 million a year at the aging Garnett or Duncan for 2 years than I would at Hibbert for 5 years.

5: What has been the biggest disappointment of the playoffs so far?
Honorable Mention: Chris Paul’s play in the 2^nd round, Memphis losing in the 1^st round, Phoenix/Minnesota not making the playoffs in place of Utah (so we could see Nash or Love/Rubio for four games instead of Utah’s lackluster squad).

The clear cut number one disappointment of the playoffs is Derrick Rose’s ACL. Well it’s not so much the ACL’s fault, but the fact he tore his ACL. It doesn’t matter how much you love your team or how much you maybe even hate the Bulls, you don’t want guys to go down with injuries that severe. Even though surgeries are entirely different now than they used to be, there is still a chance that Derrick Rose is never the same player. He was incredibly successful because of his explosiveness and speed, and he is going to lose some of that, or at least take some time to recover it. And maybe I’m different than everyone else, but I’m an NBA fan more than anything. I want every team 100% coming into the playoffs. I don’t want any asterisks or footnotes next to a title winner. I want the 16 best teams in the league all at their very best for two months of great basketball. Taking Rose out of the equation was a major blow to the Bulls, and to the overall quality of the NBA Playoffs.

6: Any potential Big Room Award winners from this post-season so far?
It’s early in the year, and we have some basketball yet to be played, but we have a few. Obviously there are a few candidates for any NBA exclusive categories. I’d say right now the early front runners for NBA Player of the Year are LeBron James or Kevin Durant, and that can definitely be wrapped up with a title. Speaking of a title, whoever wins the championship will almost certainly get a nomination for Team of the Year, and if the Spurs end up wrapping up a title, it’s hard to imagine a team going on a run as impressive as theirs not taking home the hypothetical Biggie Award Trophy. Coach of the Year honors are definitely up for grabs, especially with Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers still in the mix. There haven’t been any major upsets, but there have been some really good games. Clippers/Grizzlies game one could definitely get some Game of the Year love because of an unthinkable comeback.

Additionally, we have potential nominees for some off the court action as well. TNT’s Inside the NBA has been nominated two straight years for Best Pre/Post Game Show, and this year they could bring home the gold. We also have Best and Worst Announcers of the Year honors potentially in play. Marv Albert is the voice of the NBA, and Mike Breen is high on the game-caller power rankings as well. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Chris Webber seemingly doing everything he could to secure a nomination for Worst Announcer of the Year. It’s almost like he’s purposely awful.

7: Now that Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose are out for the Olympics, who should round out the 12 man roster for Team USA?
First let me say that even though Dwight Howard is my least favorite player in the NBA, losing him really hurts Team USA. Not to the point that I fear we aren’t bringing back the Gold Medal, but enough that it’s not totally out of the question that Spain could pull an upset. They nearly did in 2008, and now Serge Ibaka will join more rested than expected Gasol brothers on the Spanish team. Rose’s injury hurts too, but there is a bulk of great point guards USA has to choose from. Not exactly the case with centers. We have two separate questions here: who do I think should, and who do I think will round out the 12 man roster for Team USA. I personally think it would be wise to have James Harden take Derrick Rose’s spot and Anthony Davis take Dwight Howard’s spot. If you didn’t read my USA Basketball post back in January then the quick rundown of my 12 man roster now including Harden and Davis is: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kevin Love, Tyson Chandler, Russell Westbrook, Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin, James Harden, and Anthony Davis. Hold the phone though, Dwyane Wade has talked about how he may not participate in the Olympics, and due to a knee issue and an extended playoff run, this is something we need to consider. Assuming Wade doesn’t participate, I hesitantly put Carmelo back onto Team USA. Again, if you didn’t read the post back in January, the reason I kept Carmelo off in the first place is because Team USA doesn’t really need any more scoring, and as seen in the playoffs, Carmelo is a scorer who needs a lot of shots to get those points. Just take a look at the Knicks/Heat series. It took Carmelo 124 shots to score 139 points. I trust Durant a lot more in the role of “Off the bench scoring forward to come in and light it up” than I do Carmelo.

One more quick thought before I get to who I think will be on Team USA: I know that the pool of players who could potentially play in London has already been determined, but if possible I think Jerry Colangelo and Coach K should take a look at bringing in Kevin Garnett. He looks better this postseason than he has since his first season in Boston, and I trust him more than Bosh, Griffin and even Love in a big game. You’re telling me KG wouldn’t get all kinds of fired up to go to war against Spain in the Gold Medal Game? If that were the case, I’m keeping Anthony Davis off and bringing Garnett along.

Alright, so now who will actually make Team USA? Well, if Dwyane Wade wants in, he’s in. If Deron Williams decides that playing for Team USA is more important than leaving Brooklyn, he’s most likely in. So that brings us to 10 locked spots for LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Durant, Paul, Williams, Westbrook, Love, Chandler, Carmelo. My guess would be that Bosh will be added (experience, size, and a game that translates well to the international game) and so will Blake Griffin (for marketability and a slew of garbage time alley-oops). Anyways, whether these are the smartest moves, it’s likely where we are headed and regardless, USA will all but certainly win Gold. I just think Harden makes more sense than Williams or Carmelo; he can play 1-3, he’s familiar with coming off the bench, and he can be effective by scoring or distributing. Plus he would have the best beard in the entire 2012 Olympics.

8: Where does LeBron’s game four against Indiana rank among his all-time best playoff performances?
Of course I was going to have one whole question devoted to LeBron! By now you knew this had to be coming, didn’t you? Plus, this question gave me an opportunity to look back and reminisce on all of his past playoff games. After careful research thanks to www.basketball-reference.com and a brain that is geared towards remembering useless pieces of NBA information, as far as I can tell, this was the 2^nd most impressive/significant game of LeBron’s playoff career. Allow me to break down the top five, in descending order.

T5: 2006 Game 3 1st Round- Win 97-96 at Washington, 16-28 FG, 6-9 FT, 41 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
-This game has lost steam historically because it came in the first round and because Cleveland lost in the next round. In reality, it was one hell of an effing game and series for that matter. LeBron was absolutely out of his mind in this game (as you can see above) and in the series (35.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.7 assist, and an unheard of 47 minutes per game). What’s not shown in the stat line is LeBron breaking the record for most points in a road playoff debut, his 14 points in the 4^th quarter or the game winning bank shot he hit with 6 seconds left.

T5: 2011 Game 5 Conference Finals- Win 83-80 at Chicago, 8-19 FG, 9-11 FT, 28 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists
-This game has already lost steam historically because of the fact the numbers don’t stand out like many of LeBron’s other games do, and because he played a round of hide and seek in the NBA Finals. In reality, this game was Chicago’s to win and it was a minor miracle that Miami won. The Bulls were up 77-65 with just 3:14 left, and then LeBron (along with Dwyane Wade) started making huge shots, Chicago went cold, and suddenly Miami, thanks to a clutch LeBron James jumper, had the lead. To cap off the game, LeBron fittingly blocked a potential game tying three point attempt from Derrick Rose. It was an appropriate way to end a series where Derrick Rose shot 7% in the fourth quarters with LeBron guarding him.

This postseason LeBron has been on a different level than everybody else.

4: 2009 Game Two ECF- Win 96-95 vs. Orlando, 12-23 FG, 10-12 FT, 35 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists
-A not so fun fact: I actually missed this game live. It was the night of prom my junior year of high school and I didn’t see LeBron knock down the biggest shot of his career, which doubled as the biggest shot in the history of the Cleveland Cavaliers. That night I actually spent more time on the dance floor getting updates from my dad than I did dancing. And I was one pissed off S.O.B. when I got the message saying that Cleveland had blown a 23 point lead and was down 2 points with one second left. Needless to say, my night completely turned around when I got bombarded with text messages from every family member and friend who was watching the game. It still bugs me that I didn’t get to watch this game as it happened, but luckily Sports Center ran the shot on a 24/7 replay for the next two days, and I was fortunate enough to catch the game on ESPN Classic a while later.

3: 2009 Game Five ECF- Win 112-102 vs. Orlando, 11-24 FG, 15-19 FT, 37 points, 14 rebounds, 12 assists
-Incredible performance with Cleveland on life support at the time. LeBron scored 17 in the fourth quarter, and scored or assisted on Cleveland’s final 29 points of the game. 1962 was the last time anyone posted at least 37-14-12 in a playoff game, so umm yeah, that’s kind of impressive.

2: 2012 Game Four 2^nd Round- Win 101-93 at Indiana, 14-27 FG, 12-16 FT, 40 points, 18 rebounds, 9 assists
-Let’s wait to discuss the magnitude of this game until this post season ends. From what I can tell, it’s safely locked in at number two since it can’t surpass the number one game, and since number three took place right before the Cavaliers were knocked out of the playoffs. Let me just say this though, in 9 years of watching LeBron, this was probably the most complete game he has ever played when you consider his scoring, rebounding, defense, etc. He played nearly flawless basketball.

1: 2007 Game Five ECF- Win 109-107 at Detroit, 18-33 FG, 10-14 FT, 48 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists
-Call me biased, but I’d be willing to argue with anyone that this was the best post-MJ playoff performance yet. You know who got 4^th quarter and overtime minutes for Cleveland besides LeBron in this game? Eric Snow, Sasha Pavlovic, Daniel Gibson, Damon Jones, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. There is a reason why LeBron scored 29 of the last 30 Cleveland points… That team sucked! I keep saying this! LeBron’s greatest accomplishment of his career hasn’t been his three MVP Awards, back to back 60 win seasons or the all-defensive teams he’s made; it’s getting this particular Cleveland team to the NBA Finals. It’s not just impressive, it’s slightly miraculous. If you have the time, click on the link and watch the 13 minute highlight video from this game. It’s worth the time, trust me, and I’m not just saying that from a LeBron fan perspective. If you appreciate basketball brilliance or you don’t necessarily remember the game so vividly like I do, then I beg you to watch the highlights.

9: What is the biggest reason for each team remaining why they won’t win the title?
Miami- As a half-hearted Miami Heat fan, I have three major worries about this team. Worry number one is if the Big Three can hold up. And that doesn’t concern just Chris Bosh, who is a serious question mark for the rest of the postseason. Dwyane Wade is getting his knee drained (never a good sign) and LeBron is going through yet another post season averaging 40 plus minutes per game. Not trying to make excuses for LeBron, but fatigue was definitely a reason why he performed poorly against Dallas in the Finals last year. Without Bosh in the mix and a banged up Wade, it worries me that LeBron might need to start logging even more minutes. My second worry is the supporting cast, which has so far offered little help. Outside of Mario Chalmers, I don’t feel totally comfortable with offensive contributions from any other players. Battier is shooting under 30% from deep, and Mike Miller is running like a 70 year old man with two hip replacements and a back surgery in the past. Worry number three is the LeBron/Wade dynamic. I’m still convinced they haven’t reached their peak as teammates, and I don’t know the Heat can win a title until they do. This is especially troubling against teams like Boston and San Antonio who thrive on teamwork.

Boston- Injuries, injuries, injuries! Ray Allen has two bad ankles, Avery Bradley has a bad shoulder, Paul Pierce has a sprained knee and Kevin Garnett isn’t exactly unbreakable. If Boston isn’t at full strength, it’s hard to believe they can beat the Heat, let alone win the NBA Title.

Oklahoma City Thunder- The biggest reason the Oklahoma City Thunder won’t win the NBA Title is the San Antonio Spurs. Plain and simple. Ten years ago, the Kings and Lakers had a 7 game battle in the Western Conference Finals, and were without question the two best teams in the league. If the Thunder can manage to make this series interesting (that looks like it might be a big if), we might end up looking at things the same way this year.

San Antonio- At this point it’s really hard to point to anything San Antonio does and call it a potential weakness. The only way I can see them not winning the NBA Title is if their bench pulls a Houdini and disappears, AND the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili Big 3 is badly outplayed. That looks very unlikely. When you play rock solid team basketball like San Antonio does, it’s really hard to imagine a scenario where the Spurs don’t win the title.

10: Historically, how significant are the rest of the playoffs?
Very. Up for grabs:
-Rajon Rondo, Tony Parker or maybe even Russell Westbrook could take sole possession of the “Best Point Guard in the World” Championship Belt.
-Kevin Durant could make a serious push as the best player in the NBA. His late game heroics and overall brilliance so far in the playoffs, combined with an NBA title would give that argument some serious momentum.
-Miami desperately needs to win a title… And that’s all I really need to say.
-This might seem crazy at first glance, but a 2^nd ring would put Dwyane Wade third on the list of best shooting guards of all-time.  I’m not going to list the credentials because I can only give Dwyane Wade so much love in one post.
-Boston could pull one of the greatest upsets in NBA playoff history if they could somehow win the NBA Title. Additionally, if Boston wins the title the Garnett/Pierce/Allen era will be seen as a complete success, without any objection. This was originally supposed to be a three-year plan, and we are now in year five. If two titles come out of a supposed to be three-year plan, no Boston fan is complaining.

The Spurs are seven wins from capping off an all-time great NBA season

-San Antonio could not only lock down a spot as one of the greatest dynasties in NBA history (5 titles in a 13 year span), but lock down a seat at the Greatest Teams of All-Time round table. It’s not completely out of the question that they could sweep the playoffs. Even if they didn’t, but still remained relatively dominant (say they finish 16-2 in the postseason), they enter the conversation. For God sakes, they are 33-3 since March 12! They aren’t at the level of 96 Bulls, 86 Celtics or 87 Lakers as far as historical relevance goes… but this is the best NBA team I can remember see playing. If they finish the job, they more than deserve that recognition. Plus, the individual legacies of Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich are greatly improved, not that they need it.
-As much as Miami needs to win a title this year, LeBron James needs to win a title even more. It just has to happen. LeBron may be the most brilliant basketball talent of all-time, yet won’t ever be fully appreciated if he doesn’t win at least one championship. It’s a shame, but it’s true. Right now, I’ve never felt more comfortable with the way LeBron is playing. I’ve watched him closely for 9 years and he is playing the best basketball of his entire career right now. There is one gigantic problem; basketball is a team sport, and the brilliance of the best team (San Antonio) will almost always be greater than the brilliance of the best individual (LeBron James). That’s why even if the Heat make the Finals (I still can’t count out Boston… it’s a mental thing for me) come mid-June I’ll again be left disappointed. At least I know it in advance.

2012 NBA MVP Shares Part Two

Tyson Chandler (3 Shares)- 11.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 68 FG%
Three statements that warrant Tyson Chandler getting 3 MVP Shares:
1: Statistically, this is his best season since the 2007-08, which includes the third best field goal percentage in NBA history.
2: He is the main reason why the New York Knicks look like an NBA team, and not a team playing at Rucker Park. Chandler, rookie Iman Shumpert, and wait for it… interim coach Mike Woodson have given the Knicks at least a fraction of a defensive identity. If you want to contend for a title, you need to play at least some defense, and Carmelo, JR Smith and Baron Davis certainly aren’t locking anyone down.
3: Aside from Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler was the single most important piece of the Mavericks championship team last year. Don’t believe me, check out Dirk’s take on Tyson Chandler’s value: “His positive energy, his defense I think is really what turned this whole thing around and what really won us the playoffs. Every big game down the stretch we did it with defense.”

Russell Westbrook (3 Shares)- 23.5 points, 5.4 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 46 FG%
I’m not afraid to admit that I’m not the biggest Starting at Point Guard, Russell Westbrook guy. In his defense, he was a shooting guard in college, with shooting guard scoring skills, and he has a shooting guard’s mentality. It’s completely understandable that a guy who is wired like a shooting guard and has the skill set of a shooting guard would actually play like a shooting guard.  It’s been four years and he still doesn’t look like a point guard.

Even though it bugs me to watch the point guard Westbrook, Russell Westbrook is still one of the most talented and exciting players in the league. I can’t help but wonder what the Thunder would look like if Eric Maynor hadn’t gotten hurt and you insert him into the starting lineup with Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka and Perkins. That would allow Westbrook to play his natural position, Harden to remain coming off the bench, which is actually an ideal spot for him, and an impossible-to-keep-up-with small lineup of Maynor, Westbrook, Harden, Durant, and Ibaka.

None of that really has anything to do with Westbrook’s MVP credentials, which are definitely worth mentioning… especially considering this whole post is about the MVP. Westbrook’s durable (hasn’t missed a game this year, or in his career), shooting more yet shooting a career high 46 percent, and he’s a mismatch for a ton of point guards in the league. Seriously, I love Steve Nash, but Nash doesn’t have a snowballs shot in hell of stopping Russell Westbrook from doing whatever he wants. And that’s what separates Westbrook from the prototypical point guard. A point guard like Nash is likely thinking about how to get his teammates a great shot even if he has a good shot. Westbrook is likely thinking about how he is one of the 15 most talented players in the league, so his good shot is better than a lot of his teammates great shot. I’m fine with that. I understand that. But Westbrook has got to remember he has this guy named Kevin Durant rocking the Thunder jersey with him, and Durant’s good shot is better than Westbrook’s.

So with all of that said, it’s hard to gauge how valuable Westbrook really is. Maybe he would be more valuable if he took 4 less shots and averaged 3 more assists per game. Or maybe he’d be more valuable to the Thunder if he didn’t need to carry the burden of running the offense and could focus primarily on scoring, while someone like Maynor (when healthy) or Harden (perfectly capable) ran the offense. Right now he vacillates between the two styles of play and he still managed to get 3 MVP shares.

Rajon Rondo (6 Shares)- 12.1 points, 11.6 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 45 FG%
As mentioned in the Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett section last week, Rajon Rondo is the catalyst for the Celtics. He makes them go, he steers the ship, and he usually saves his best for their biggest games. In 13 games against the Knicks, Heat, Bulls, and Lakers, Rondo has boosted his numbers up to 18.2 points, 12.1 assists, and 6.8 rebounds.

You may be thinking “So what, a lot of great players elevate their play against the better teams in the league.” True, but Rondo has been incredible all season long. Rondo ended the season in the midst of a 24 game double digit assist streak that’s only been topped by John Stockton (29 games) in 1992. To put that in context, Chris Paul has 25 double digit assist games total this season. So strictly from a passing the ball standpoint, Rondo has established himself as the most effective passer in the NBA. He doubles as the only player in the league who I can realistically see throwing up a 20 point, 20 assist, 20 rebound game and don’t laugh because he came damn close with a mind-blowing 18-20-17 performance in a win against the Knicks back in March. The fact that we can even talk about a 20-20-20 game is borderline stupid. I’ve played a lot of NBA Live in my day, probably more than I should’ve, and it’s impossible to put together a 20-20-20 game. Trust me, the real life Rondo is the only one flirting with that feat.

Steve Nash (8 Shares)- 12.5 points, 10.8 assists, 53 FG%, 39 3FG%
Are there any true NBA fans who do not absolutely love what Steve Nash did this year? I personally find it hard not to marvel at Nash on a nightly basis. Maybe it’s just the point guard mentality I have embedded in my system or maybe it’s because I’m an NBA nerd, but I think anyone who appreciates the game of basketball appreciates Steve Nash. Nash has never been the consensus best player in the NBA, even during his back to back MVP seasons, but it’s impossible to deny the impact that he has on the court, this season especially.

Nash’s 2011-12 campaign gives meaning to the word valuable. His uninspiring supporting cast features Shannon Brown, Josh Childress, Jared Dudley, Channing Frye, Marcin Gortat, Grant Hill, Michael Redd, Markieff Morris and Sebastian Telfair. In summary, his best teammate (Gortat) was Dwight Howard’s back up and possibly has the biggest nose in the NBA. His 2nd best teammate (Hill) is a year older than Nash himself. Translation: Nash is making chicken salad out of chicken shit, and it tastes pretty good. Somehow, Nash has turned a Suns team that doesn’t feature a guard who can create a shot for himself—unless you want to count Michael Redd, who is willing to pull the trigger from anywhere— into a potential playoff team, in the Western Conference no less.

Statistically, Nash has declined over the last 3 years but still boasts numbers that make many point guards in the league look like novices. This is especially true when you consider he’s 38 freaking years old! Generally, John Stockton is considered the model for point guards as far solid and consistent play over a career goes. Nash is scoffing at Stockton’s late career numbers and overall value. Stockton’s 99-00 season doesn’t match up to Nash’s current season statistically (Stockton- 12.1, 8.6, 50% compared to Nash- 12.5, 10.8, 53%) or when you consider Steve Nash is the guy for the Phoenix Suns and he damn near single handedly carried this crappy team to the playoffs. And am I crazy or does it seem like Steve Nash could play effectively for another 5 or so years? With his basketball IQ, ability to knock down open shots, and commitment to keeping himself in great shape, it seems like we could be seeing a lot more of Steve Nash… thankfully.

Tony Parker (8 Shares)- 18.3 points, 7.7 assists, 48 FG%
To no fault of his own, I have new found animosity for Tony Parker. You see, Skip Bayless and I are rivals. He doesn’t know this unless he’s seen a few of the Tweets I’ve sent him relating to LeBron James. Last week on ESPN First Take, a showcase for Skip Bayless to be an ignorant ass, which he is unbelievably good at, he expressed that he thought Tony Parker was as worthy of the MVP this year as LeBron James. Laughable. Skip is the same guy who was standing up for Dwight Howard when Dwight said he wouldn’t play for Stan Van Gundy. Again, ridiculously laughable. Tony Parker is simply guilty by association. The fact is, Parker does deserve to be in the MVP discussion. But you have to be realistic with it. Parker is playing for a team that features 11 players averaging 7 points or more. In comparison to LeBron James (Skip’s idea, not mine), the Heat have 4 players averaging 7 points or more. That’s a lot more production from Parker’s teammates than LeBron’s. And Skip is going to try to tell me Tony Parker is more valuable to the Spurs than LeBron is to the Heat? Give me a break.

Let me give my spiel on Parker now. Playing the league’s deepest position, Parker, along with Nash, is receiving the 2^nd most MVP Shares of any point guard this year. The irony of this is Parker decisively outplayed the only point guard in front of him, Chris Paul, in their head to head meetings this year (Parker- 22 points, 9.5 assists, and 55% shooting vs. Paul- 15.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 31% shooting). Considering I’ve gone on record saying that Chris Paul is the best point guard I’ve seen play, and Nash’s credentials speak for themselves, this is a pretty important note. It’s also important to note that this season more than ever Parker is facilitating one of the league’s best offenses while still showing the ability to at times score as well as any point guard in the league. On top of this, he gets points for being the best player on the best team record-wise in the Western Conference.

Kevin Love (10 Shares)- 26.0 points, 13.3 rebounds, 45 FG%, 37 3FG%
I expect that I have Love higher than most MVP voters will. For a good portion of the year, the general consensus amongst NBA fans was:
1: Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio have made basketball relevant in Minnesota.
2: Kevin Love is the best power forward in the NBA.
3: Kevin Love is without question an MVP candidate.

Just about the time everyone was starting to realize all of this, Ricky Rubio went down with a torn ACL, the Timberwolves went into an understandable slump (5-18 since Rubio was injured) and everyone aborted the Kevin Love bandwagon. Let me rephrase: everyone unfairly aborted the Kevin Love bandwagon. Everyone seemed to forget about his 48 double doubles (most in the league), 39 minutes per game (2^nd in the league) and his unthinkable month of March where he led the NBA in points, rebounds and 3 point field goals made. The list displaying all of the players who had accomplished that in a single month was non-existent before Love pulled it off. And really, should it be a surprise? Are there any players who could have ever sniffed coming close to that accolade other than Larry Bird or possibly Dirk Nowitzki? Don’t forget about the game winning 3 against the Clippers, the sweet beard that I plan on trying to grown, the fact that he is without question the best white player in the NBA (and potentially the best since Larry Bird), his ridiculous stat-lines like 31-20  (Milwaukee), 32-21 (New York), 39-17 (LA Clippers), 51-14 (Oklahoma City), 40-19 (Charlotte), 30-21 (Denver), 33-17 (Houston), and 18 games total of at least 30 points and 10 rebounds.

My criterion clearly states that “It needs to be taken into consideration whether an MVP is good enough to get his team to the playoffs.” Love fell short in arguably the most important category, but he kicked ass everywhere else. Take a look.
1: How valuable is this player to his team in the landscape of the league? To answer this question you need to evaluate how many wins a player is worth to his team.
-Minnesota is 2-8 without Love, and that doesn’t sound too far off what their win percentage would be if you took him off the team. Would a team with a nucleus of Nicola Pekovic, Luke Ridnour, Michael Beasley, J.J. Barea, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Anthony Tolliver, and Wes Johnson win more than 20% of their games? Even if you add Rubio back into the mix, the Timberwolves are closer to winning 30 games in an 82 game season than they are to winning 50.

3: Statistically, how great was the player’s season? Was it one of his career best? Was it one of the NBA’s best? Was it historically good?
-26 points per game is Love’s career high, and good enough for 4^th best in the NBA. 13.3 rebounds per game is the second highest of Love’s career. When you combine the two, Love is in pretty impressive company. Since 1990, only Shaquille O’Neal (twice) and Hakeem Olajuwon (Once) have submitted a 26-13 season. So yeah, Love was statistically historically good this year.

4: What is the player’s role on the team and how important is that role?
-Well when you are relied on to score every big point and grab every big rebound, I’d say that’s a pretty crucial role.

5: How good are they under pressure? Please keep all LeBron criticisms to yourself. Thank you.
I present the evidence

6: To steal an idea from the Bible (Aka: The Book of Basketball by Bill Simmons): In a giant pickup game with every player available and two knowledgeable fans forced to pick five-man teams, with their lives depending on the game’s outcome, what would be the order of the players picked, based on this season alone?
-Let’s try to hash this out. If I had the number one pick, I’m absolutely torn between picking LeBron or Kobe. LeBron is the most complete player in the league, but Kobe is an absolute killer. I would fear that if I picked LeBron, a vengeful Kobe would go into full blown Mamba mode and single handedly end my life. At the same time, if I picked Kobe I would be going to war knowing that I don’t have the best player in the game. Hypothetically, if LeBron were to be picked first and Kobe second, then Durant and a healthy Dwight Howard are probably next to go. After those four isn’t it probably Dwyane Wade (for those of you who are big on him), Chris Paul or Kevin Love? I’m not big on Wade, so he’s not even an option for me if I have the fifth pick. A possible strategy: even though Chris Paul is the next best player available, why grab Chris Paul with the 5^th pick when you have Rondo, Nash, Westbrook, Rose, Williams, Parker, etc. still waiting on the board? I’m grabbing Love, knowing that I can get a reasonable foe for Paul later. Plus, my team almost certainly has a definitive edge at power forward now.

Side note: After thinking about this quite a bit and inquiring with Paul Clark, I came to a conclusion that I would risk picking Chris Paul fifth, hoping that the “knowledgeable fan” I’m picking against isn’t as knowledgeable as he should be and overlooks Kevin Love with the next pick. Give me Kobe, Durant, Paul, Love and a Center to be named (Bynum, Chandler, Al Jefferson, and Marc Gasol are on my short list of possible choices. I’m slightly leaning towards Chandler to anchor my defense) and suddenly I’m feeling pretty good about my chances of living.

So with that said, I have Love 5^th in the MVP Shares standings. Statistically, he is magnificent. His impact on his team can’t be questioned. But he still managed to fall way short in getting Minnesota to the playoffs.

I just had to include the Kobe Face

Kobe Bryant (12 Shares)- 27.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 43 FG%
Kevin Durant (16 Shares)- 28.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 50 FG%, 38 3FG%
Just to be clear, before last Sunday’s OKC/LA showdown (also known as The Day Ron Artest Made His New Name Really, Really Awkward), I had Kevin Durant slated for 18 MVP shares and Kobe with 10 MVP Shares. Today, Durant is down to 16 and Kobe is up to 12. Kobe gets those two shares because in a game where both he and Durant struggled from the field (Kobe- 9 for 26, 26 points, Durant- 11 for 34, 35 points), he proved that like the Black Mamba itself, he is still the most dangerous player in the world. Plus, since this is my hypothetical idea I can dish out my hypothetical shares to whoever I want.

Other than the snapshot of MWP smashing James Harden in the side of the head with a Jon Jones style elbow, the roll of film from last Sunday’s game feature Kobe’s refusal to lose by hitting two huge three’s in regulation and the go ahead jumper in the 2^nd overtime, Russell Westbrook momentarily validating why I think Durant should be taking the big shots, and then Durant refusing to attack the basket even though his jump shot was struggling mightily. Kobe overcame a slow shooting start and closed the game as he has done so many times before. Durant, despite 35 points, came up short.

In my eyes, Kobe is motivated by one accolade right now: six rings. It’s really that simple. That’s why Kobe didn’t play the last night of the season and hang 40 on Sacramento to win the scoring title. That isn’t what matters to Kobe. Kobe’s 2011-12 season is more similar to a vintage Allen Iverson season than it is a season of Michael Jordan. Rather than picking his spots and dominating in ways that late 90’s Jordan did, Kobe, like Iverson, has had to battle and he succeeds at this point more on desire than overwhelming skill. He’s shown a tendency to force shots, not so much in a selfish mindset but more along the lines of him having supreme confidence in himself, which is well deserved I suppose. Kobe is excelling mainly on tenacity and a hunger to win that not many players have. He is killing himself by playing nearly 39 minutes a night of balls to the wall basketball, ridiculous considering he has already logged over 50,000 regular season and playoff minutes combined in his career. Don’t forget, he’s doing so while dealing with grocery list of nagging injuries. Bynum has shown glimpses of dominance and once upon a time Pau was widely considered the most skilled big man in the game, but other than that do the Lakers have anything special? I really like the Ramon Sessions acquisition, but he alone doesn’t instantly make the Lakers a title contender. In the end, the Lakers will live and die by the play of Kobe Bryant, and I don’t think he would have it any other way.

Had you asked me the night of the 2008 NBA Draft where Kevin Durant would be five seasons later, I’m pretty sure I would’ve accurately been able to predict that he’d be near a 28 point per game scorer, adding 8 or so rebounds and around 4 assists. I was one of the select few who thought Durant should’ve been the number one pick in the draft over Greg Oden. I knew Durant would be a star and I swear to you that I would’ve been able to call that in 5 years he would be an MVP candidate. I wouldn’t have been able to predict that at this very point, I’d have more skepticism over Durant than I would at any point in his career. As a basketball fan, I want Kevin Durant to prove my next statement wrong. I’m concerned that Durant doesn’t have It. Durant has all of the physical tools to be the greatest perimeter scorer of all-time. He’s nearly 7 feet tall, has an enviable jumper and has shown great improvement in all other areas of his game. But last weeks’ Lakers game scares me. Last year’s playoffs scared me, when Westbrook and Harden showed more courage late in some games than Durant did. This is all coming from a fan of LeBron James, who played a round of hide and go seek in the NBA Finals last year. But LeBron has shown he can dominate games in multiple ways, not just by scoring. Right now, Durant’s shtick is scoring. And when he defers or comes up short, it scares me. I want to see Durant win a ring someday and I think he has a really good chance this year. In the end, the Thunder will live and die by the play of Kevin Durant, but I don’t think he necessarily wants it that way.

Chris Paul (20 Shares)- 19.8 points, 9.1 assists, 2.5 steals, 48 FG%, 37 3FG%
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Chris Paul is the best point guard I’ve ever seen play. Maybe not statistically, but you can’t control a game as well Chris Paul does. You can’t do it. No great player in the league right now better understands the concept of involving his teammates for 42 minutes and then kicking into a totally different gear for the last six. Watching Paul sit back, get all of his teammates their shots and then come to the conclusion that his team is better off when he starts taking over … it’s wonderful. And it hardly ever fails. Paul’s basketball IQ (doesn’t get much higher), ball handling skills (masterful), and passing genetics (as a point guard, I’m envious) all make him a revolutionary point guard.

I’ve raved about Chris Paul the player, but what are his MVP credentials? The failed Paul-to-Lakers trade almost set the NBA on fire. While this doesn’t seem significant, just imagine if the Lakers were trying to acquire a point guard like Darren Collison instead of Chris Paul. Does anybody care that David Stern vetoed that trade? Probably not. Instead, Paul got traded to the Clippers. This trade took the Clippers from a fringe playoff team to a sexy pick to make the NBA Finals. I don’t think Darren Collison has that pull (By the way, I have no problems with Darren Collison. When I think of middle of the road point guards, I think of Darren Collison. He is my designated example). Paul is the ultimate closer, as mentioned above. Looking at the rest of the roster, there isn’t one guy I’d feel totally confident with taking the last shot besides Paul. Blake Griffin still hasn’t developed a polished offensive game and often comes up small in the clutch. DeAndre Jordan still hasn’t developed an offensive game outside of catching alley-oops. Nick Young is sure willing to take late game shots, I just don’t know how comfortable I feel with that. Mo Williams is a classic second banana who shouldn’t need to create his own shot. Caron Butler is a shell of his former self, shooting 41% this year. Do you get the point or do I need to continue, because I have more ammo.

Finally, Paul is good enough to single-handedly put a sliver of doubt in my mind about picking the Memphis Grizzlies to come out of the first round. Last year after he carried a below average Hornets supporting cast to two wins against the Lakers in the first round we learned the lesson that you shouldn’t count out Chris Paul. Darren Collison wouldn’t have been able to sniff a win in that series.

LeBron James (35 Shares)- 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.9 steals, 53 FG%, 36 3FG%
I feel like giving too much explanation would just sound bias. I could give you every detailed stat and plenty of stories’ debunking the myth of LeBron being “anti-clutch.” That doesn’t really matter if you are hardheaded and refuse to admit how great he is. I’ll just give one statistical nugget that I think is pretty significant, and then get to my NBA Playoff predictions. This year, LeBron led the Heat in points, assists, rebounds and steals. The last player to do this was… the 2008-2009 Cleveland Cavaliers version of LeBron James. I don’t know how else you can define “valuable.” Anyways, onto the Playoff Predictions.

Eastern Conference
1^st Round- Chicago over Philadelphia (4-1), Miami over New York (4-2), Indiana over Orlando (4-0), Boston over Atlanta (4-1)
2^nd Round- Boston over Chicago (4-2), Miami over Indiana (4-2)
Conference Finals- Miami over Boston (4-3)

Western Conference
1^st Round- San Antonio over Utah (4-1), Oklahoma City over Dallas (4-1), Los Angeles Lakers over Denver (4-2), Memphis over Los Angeles Clippers (4-2)
2^nd Round- Memphis over San Antonio (4-2), Oklahoma City over Los Angeles Lakers (4-3)
Conference Finals- Memphis over Oklahoma City (4-2)

NBA Finals- Miami over Memphis (4-2)

The Captain’s Corner 2012 NBA Playoff Preview Podcast

The general measuring stick for sports postseason excitement is March Madness. Especially on the first weekend, everyone stops what they are doing and all that matters is the bracket. What teams are going to be upset? What powerhouses looked good? How are my picks doing? How many times will “Onions!” be yelled by Bill Raftery? I get caught up in the madness just like everyone else. But I’m a complete NBA dork (if you didn’t know already). To me, the NBA playoffs trump March Madness. Multiple games every night for two months, better basketball, more on the line in terms of legacy and history. I eat that shit up like it’s Mom’s Chicken Parmesan. This year, the start of the NBA playoffs coincide with the end of my sophomore year at college. With a massive burden lifted off my back, I couldn’t think of any better way to bring in the NBA Playoffs than talking about it with the jack-of-all-trades himself, Paul Clark. We got into a thorough breakdown and made plenty of predictions. In Pauley’s case, he made history with his NBA Finals predicted.

You’re dying to know what exactly he predicted, aren’t you? Just click here to find out.